Production cutbacks both in China and South Africa fueled metal prices to soar across the international market, but China still lagged behind of the international market in the upward cycle.

SHFE 3-month contract price was 19,386 yuan/t in Q1 2008, 4% higher than the average in Q4 2007.

China suffered a loss of 1.73mln tpy in its aluminum production capacities in Q1 this year. Currently, several damaged aluminum smelters are trying to resume production. With all the overhauling work ongoing well, Antaike estimates the real production loss will narrow to 450,000 tonnes for the first half this year, but there is little news of production cutbacks outside of China.

Antaike lowered its forecast for primary aluminum production in China in 2008 from the previous 15.40mln tonnes to the current 15.10mln tonnes, by taking the dropping production in Q1 into consideration.

High consuming season will be conventionally rolling in after Q1. However, Chinese trader and consumers are complaining of that the expected peak time has not come yet. Aluminum demand is hurt by a combination of declining external demand, tightening domestic macro-economy, as well as the export-discouraging policies. Antaike adjusted down its forecast for primary aluminum consumption by 3 percent points to 14.64 mln tonnes in 2008.

But little change is made on Chinese aluminum market balance, with both production and consumption forecasts being revised. The supply surplus is set at 260,000 tonnes in 2008, similar to that in 2007, with the export equivalent to the import roughly.

Antaike¡¯s view is that softening aluminum consumption in Q2 may bring a fallback to aluminum price. The aluminum market will be under bigger pressure after production loss being recuperated.

Executive Summary
Macroeconomic Outlook
Chinese Primary Aluminum Market Balance
Price Movement
Brownfield and Greenfield Projects
Production of Alumina and Aluminum
Import and Export
Consumption
Market Highlight Commentary

Tables
Table 1: Prosperous index of the macroeconomics
Table 2: Investment in Fixed Assets by Industry (2008.01-02)
Table 3: China Primary Aluminum Market Balance
Table 4: Production of Alumina by Regions in China
Table 5: Aluminum Production Cutbacks in China in Q1
Table 6: Chinese Primary Aluminum Production
Table 7: Apparent Consumption of Primary Aluminum in China in Jan.-Feb. 2008
Table 8: Production and Production Capacity of Primary Aluminum in China by Region
Table 9: Chinese Alumina Production on Quarterly Basis
Table 10: Chinese Primary Aluminum Production on Quarterly Basis
Table 11: Import of Bauxite into China on Quarterly Basis
Table 12: Import of Alumina into China on Quarterly Basis
Table 13: Chinese Import and Export of Primary Aluminum on Quarterly Basis
Table 14: Chinese Import and Export of Aluminum Alloys into China on Quarterly Basis
Table 15: Chinese Import and Export of Aluminum Semis on Quarterly Basis

Charts
Chart 1: Spot Primary Aluminum Price in Guangdong Nanhai Market in 2002-2008
Chart 2: SHFE Spot Month and 3-Month Contracts, Guangdong Nanhai and Shanghai in Q1
Chart 3: Forecast on Chinese capacity and output of primary aluminum in 2008-2010
Chart 4: Chinese monthly alumina output and the Y-o-Y growth rate
Chart 5: Chinese monthly primary aluminum output on annualized basis
Chart 6: Chinese import and export of aluminum related products
Chart 7: Chinese monthly aluminum semis output and Y-o-Y growth rate

The subscription rate is 3000 US dollar annually. But orders received before May 31 can enjoy 10% discount.

For inquires regarding sample copies or order form, please send email to shielaxin@hotmail.com or call Shiela Ju at 0086-10-63965283 or 13691238313