It is estimated that Chinese output of primary nickel output will be 251,000 tonnes in 2008, including 143,000 tonnes electrolytic nickel, 100,000 tonnes nickel pig iron and 8,000 tonnes nickel salts. And the nickel consumption will be 360,000 tonnes this year.
It is estimated that Chinese nickel apparent consumption was 117,000 tonnes in Q1 2008, up by 33% year on year. Antaike estimates that the actual consumption was 90,000 tonnes in Q1 2008. The nickel supply was sufficient in China in the period.
Chinese refined nickel export largely decreases in 2008 because the government has removed the export rebate and imposed export tariff for the product.
The imported nickel ore stock is still on the rise in China due to weak demand. There are around 6.4 million tonnes of imported nickel ores in domestic ports at present, most of which are low-grade nickel laterite ores. The thin demand for the imported nickel ores will lead to sharp decrease in the import in Q2.
Nickel pig iron price is priced according to the degree(Ni1£¥) in China. Both price movement of low-degree(4£6£¥) and high-degree (10£20£¥) nickel pig iron are closely related to the LME nickel price. But the discount on nickel spot price becomes less.
The increase in production cost just decreases the profits and does not affect the life and death of domestic nickel pig iron plants. The production is expected to remain sizeable within 1-2 years. Antaike predicts that Chinese output of nickel pig iron will be 100,000 tonnes in 2008. |