The tin price on Chinese market averaged at 152,263 yuan/tonne in Q1 2008, up by 58.6% over the same period last year. It breached a new record high of 160,000yuan/tonne in late March. Tin price in the next few months will be under pressure with production returning to normal level and consumption affected by recession in western economy.

Antaike estimates China produced 21kt tin-in-concentrate in Q1 2008. According to statistics released by CNIA, China produced 9,021 tonnes tin-in-concentrate in Jan.-Feb. this year, up by 17.22% over a year earlier. But actually many privately owned minesĄŻ output was not covered in the CNIA statistics, most of which were closed in late Jan. 2008 due to the bad whether and have not resumed production yet at the time of writing. So Antaike estimates the actual production of tin-in-concentrate in Jan.-Feb. this year should be lower than that in the same period last year. The cutbacks resulted from the snowstorm were more than 6,000 tonnes.

China imported 1306.47tonnes tin concentrate in the first two months this year. The import in Feb. was only 347.16 tonnes, the lowest level in recent three years. The grade of concentrate averaged at around 20%, much lower than the normal grade of 40-50%.

According to survey made by Antaike, Chinese tin refining capacity increased by 1.5-2.0kt to 161-161.5kt by the end of 2007. The newly added capacity was not too much due to the constraint from raw materials supply. But the capacity in 2008 will grow to 177kt with some big projects commissioned within this year.

China exported only 307.53 tonnes tin ingot in Jan.-Feb. this year, falling by 91.32% sharply, according to statistics released by the China Customs. The export in Feb. was 3 tonnes, a historical low never seen before.

China began to impose 10% export duty on tin ingot on Jan.1st 2008. The RMB has been appreciating continuously. The two factors made it difficult to export. While the domestic price rose higher than international price, which also attributed to the low export.

Chinese economy kept robust development in 2007 with GDP growth rate reaching 11.4%, up by 0.3% compared with 2006. Against this background, the Chinese consumption maintained strong. It was estimated that tin consumption in China mounted up to 132.3kt, an increase of 10.51% compared with 2006, but slower down than that of 17.85% in 2006. The tin consumption in two sectors including tin solder and chemicals slowed down in the year.

  • Chinese Tin Market Balance in 2004-2008 tonne

     

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    Jan.-Feb. 2008

    2008

    Production

    108,000

    117,000

    131,000

    144,000

    18,576

    154,000

    Net export

    22,377

    15,489

    11,124

    10,588

    -1,500

    8,000

    Apparent consumption

    85,623

    101,511

    119,876

    133,412

    20,076

    146,000

    Actual Consumption

    89,700

    101,400

    119,500

    132,300

    21,000

    146,000

    Balance

    -4,077

    111

    376

    1,111

    /

    /
Source: CNIA, the Customs and Antaike

Executive Summary
Macroeconomic Outlook
Chinese Tin Prices
Chinese Tin Raw Materials Supply
Chinese Refined Tin Production
Import and Export of Tin
Consumption
Market Balance and Price Outlook

Tables

Table 1: Tin Price on LME and China Market and Inventory on LME in 2006-2008
Table 2: Quarterly Production of Tin-in-Conc. in 2006-2008
Table 3: Chinese Production of Tin-in-Conc. in Jan.-Feb. 2008 by Province/Region
Table 4: Chinese Import of Tin Concentrate by Origin in Jan.-Feb. 2008
Table 5: Newly Added Capacity in 2008
Table 6: Chinese Tin Capacity by Province/Region
Table 7: Quarterly Production of Refined Tin in 2006-2008
Table 8: Chinese Refined Tin Production in Jan.-Feb. by Province/Region
Table 9: Import and Export of Tin and Tin Products in Jan.- Feb.2008
Table 10: Output of Electronic Products in Jan.-Feb. 2008
Table 11:New Capacity of Tinplate in China in 2008-2009
Table 12: Chinese Tin Market Balance in 2004-2008

Charts

Chart 1:China Domestic /LME Price Ratio in 2001-2008
Chart 2:Monthly Ave. Price of Refined Tin on China Market in 1998-2008
Chart 3: Monthly Import of Tin Conc. in 2004-2008
Chart 4:Tin refining capacity in China in 2001-2008
Chart 5: Monthly Production of Refined Tin in 2006-2008
Chart 6: Import and Export of Refined Tin in 2006-2008

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